Data up to July of 2021
What is going on in the market?
It’s quite challenging to look at data and statistics and really understand them unless you deal with numbers everyday.
As a disclosure I am not an economist, I am simply pulling the numbers from the Multiple Listing service for Fort Lauderdale only.
My goal on this post is to merely keep the general public informed. Plus I’m a dork and I love this. With that being said, there are tons of ways to look at data; local, national, county. We are going to do a little of everything for fun.
So let’s look at what we have to the left here and just keep it simple. This is a hyper local data for Fort Lauderdale. We are seeing a decline in sales volume currently across the board for Single Family and townhouses in the City of Fort Lauderdale.
Also historically it’s busier between memorial day and labor day. So the bulk of our sales is starting to slow. So, if you are a Seller, you really need to consider pricing your home with the right numbers as sales volume for the rest of the year will keep shrinking leaving you out to dry. Many of the FOMO buyer’s have vanished and buyer fatigue as set in.
This graph to the left is showing us the closed sales year to date up to July. Yes it’s great to see what’s going on this year, but what does the data show from the past few years.
What we se here is although closed sales is slowing down (chart above) we can see that 2021 has been a record breaking year. Many factors, I’m not even sure I know all of them, However, things like influx of people to Florida due to our lenient covid restrictions, people moving out of shared spaces into their own homes, Seller’s taking advantage of the highest sales numbers they seen in their neighborhood, maturing age brackets i.e. 25-30 year olds that want to be owners. FOMO buyer’s. We gotta remember that south Florida has always been hot market, now it’s just blazing on fire.
Interesting see how there was a huge decline in 2019 and 2020 as Covid had hit in 2019, which resulted in lower sales, lower listings, people were uncertain. Once we acclimated to what was going on, vaccines came out, and people were just tired of staying still the market broke out in an absolute buying frenzy.
I find this graph very interesting, we are showing the percentages of closed sales year to date, in comparison to 2021. I”m using the data point of the closed sale from the graph in the previous paragraph Wow amazing. So in 2021 single family homes sales were 178% higher than 2020, 145% of 2019 and 139% of 2018. WOW, you don’t realize the sales volume that has happened until you put it into a chart and look at the data.
This graph is showing months supply of inventory. What is month supply of inventory ? Months’ supply refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace.
Historically, six months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation, and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly. Link to the article here.
Wow look how decimated the inventory is for both single family and condo/townhouse sectors. The last five months, none of single family homes have over 2 months of inventory. A balanced market is 6 months, once it goes over six months its a Buyer’s market, and once it’s under six months its a Seller’s market.
This graph is showing the months supply inventory year to date up to July starting from 2018. In July 2018 it’s both a Buyer’s market for condo/TH and SFH. Then in July 2019 it turns into a slightly Seller’s market for SFH with condo/TH still a Buyer’s Market. 2020 is definitely a Buyer’s market for condo/TH with SFH shifting stronger into a Seller’s market.
2021 moves into a full fledged Seller’s market with very low inventory. Comparing July of 2021 to July of 2020, there is a -68.4% change, thats astronomical, furthermore there is a change of almost -80% inventory in the 200 vs 2021 condo/Th segment. WOW!! Has covid really affected our market!
